Starting from the big picture. The safe haven commodity has been trading in a bullish channel as shown in the picture, and has recently broke an uptrend (red minor trend) to the downside with higher volume.
The gold has successfully formed a 1-2-3 elliott waves, and is now retracing for the 2/3 of the 4th wave, which happened to be on the 23.6% level of the mega fibonacci retracement, along with the minor trend that was also broken to the downside. Thus, the gold is bearish for the very short term, and a sell decision would be beneficial today.
however, we are still waiting wave 5 to occur, which should also be testing the upper level of the channel, again, and it is expected to be at the 1325 $ per ounce, with a potential buy signal at the 1075 $ per ounce.
On the other hand, the quantitative analysis is telling another story. the RSI is near the oversold area, though not reached yet, which gives a possibility for a further downsides for the gold. the MACD has recently broke down the centerline, which gives a sell signal.the same is happening on a weekly chart. the minor trend line has been broken to the downside, but the difference is that RSI and MACD are showing extremely sell signals, with RSI just broke down the overbought area, and the MACD just had a bearish crossover. a buys signal must occur at 1040 level, which is 6% lower from the current market price (6% of real gold movement, without a leverage!).
i remain positive for the gold for the very very long term, though for the short - meidum term, speculation should be the key.
Happy haunting
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